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Acute Liver Study Group Prognostic Model The ALFSG Prognostic Model can be used to predict 21-day transplant-free survival (TFS) in patients with acute liver failure (ALF). Enter each of the 5 data points as indicated and the model will calculate the percent likelihood of TFS. By convention, most centers consider a prediction of > 20% likelihood of TFS as an indication for transplant listing. The model is a conservative one, rarely (2%) predicting survival in ALF patients that otherwise died or needed transplant. References: Koch DG, Tillman H, Durkalski V, Lee WM, Reuben A. Development of a Model to Predict Transplant-free Survival of Patients With Acute Liver Failure. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2016 Aug;14(8):1199-1206.
